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Spatiotemporal Analysis and Predicting Rainfall Trends in a Tropical Monsoon-Dominated Country Using Makesens and Machine Learning Techniques

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dc.contributor.author Monir, Md. Moniruzzaman
dc.contributor.author Rokonuzzaman, Md.
dc.contributor.author Sarker, Subaran Chandra
dc.contributor.author Alam, Edris
dc.contributor.author Islam, Md. Kamrul
dc.contributor.author Islam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul
dc.date.accessioned 2024-08-27T09:12:06Z
dc.date.available 2024-08-27T09:12:06Z
dc.date.issued 2023-08-25
dc.identifier.issn 2045-2322
dc.identifier.uri http://dspace.daffodilvarsity.edu.bd:8080/handle/123456789/13255
dc.description.abstract Spatiotemporal rainfall trend analysis as an indicator of climatic change provides critical information for improved water resource planning. However, the spatiotemporal changing behavior of rainfall is much less understood in a tropical monsoon-dominated country like Bangladesh. To this end, this research aims to analyze spatiotemporal variations in rainfall for the period 1980–2020 over Bangladesh at seasonal and monthly scales using MAKESENS, the Pettitt test, and innovative trend analysis. Multilayer Perception (MLP) neural network was used to predict the next 8 years' rainfall changes nationally in Bangladesh. To investigate the spatial pattern of rainfall trends, the inverse distance weighting model was adopted within the ArcGIS environment. Results show that mean annual rainfall is 2432.6 mm, of which 57.6% was recorded from July to August. The Mann–Kendall trend test reveals that 77% of stations are declining, and 23% have a rising trend in the monthly rainfall. More than 80% of stations face a declining trend from November to March and August. There is a declining trend for seasonal rainfall at 82% of stations during the pre-monsoon, 75% during the monsoon, and 100% during the post-monsoon. A significant decline trend was identified in the north-center during the pre-monsoon, the northern part during the monsoon, and the southern and northwestern portions during the post-monsoon season. Predicted rainfall by MLP till 2030 suggests that there will be little rain from November to February, and the maximum fluctuating rainfall will occur in 2025 and 2027–2029. The ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data findings suggested that changing rainfall patterns in Bangladesh may have been driven by rising or reducing convective precipitation rates, low cloud cover, and inadequate vertically integrated moisture divergence. Given the shortage of water resources and the anticipated rise in water demand, the study's findings have some implications for managing water resources in Bangladesh. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Springer Nature en_US
dc.subject Climatic change en_US
dc.subject Water resources en_US
dc.subject Machine learning en_US
dc.subject Techniques en_US
dc.title Spatiotemporal Analysis and Predicting Rainfall Trends in a Tropical Monsoon-Dominated Country Using Makesens and Machine Learning Techniques en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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