Forecasting and Comparison of Economic Indicators for The Universal Pension Scheme in Bangladesh

Abstract

Article 15 of the Bangladeshi constitution requires the state to guarantee "the right to social security." From birth to death, the Universal Pension Scheme aims to provide social security for all of its citizens and ensure that no one is left behind. This universal pension scheme is expected to provide sustainable and well-structured social security to the population of Bangladesh especially the growing elderly population due to the increase in average life expectancy. Bangladeshi citizens of all classes and professions can participate in this pension scheme between the ages of 18 to 50 years as per the national identity card or conditionally by making a minimum contribution of 10 years. The government is announcing a total of six pension schemes, but for now, four have been launched, namely PROBASH, PROGOTI, SHUROKKHA and SAMATA. Currently 62% of our total population is working. Although the current average life expectancy is 72.3 years, there is a possibility of further increase in the future, the increase in the average life expectancy and the increase in the number of single households will increase the dependency ratio in the future, so it is necessary to build a sustainable social security structure. As much as this pension scheme will benefit the people of the country, it can also harm them terribly if the government does not implement this system in a proper way. So, we will discuss a system that will most likely verify the feasibility of our pension system, as well as how much it will be acceptable to people and the possible transparency of the pension scheme. We can highlight some studies that can give us a better idea of the past and future of our economy. Among these, past data visualisation is a very significant method for reviewing the past. And I think data forecasting is the most appropriate decision for the future. We will do a good comparison of our own economic data with the data of other countries so that we can better understand the feasibility of introducing our pension system. And we will use the forecasting model so that we can see the possibility of the future of the data. In this way, we can get an idea of how the future development of the country's economy can affect our pension system. Our studies will surely help the financial sector of the government and also give a clear and proper understanding of this pension scheme among the people of the country.