CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RICE PRODUCTIVITY IN BANGLADESH AGRICULTURE: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Abstract

This paper has two objectives. First it attempts to detect the trend in the present upshots of global warming temperature data. It has been done through the estimation of the long memory fractional parameter, d using simulation technique in the presence of additive outliers, which stand as wild observations generated in the atmosphere due to global warming. Then, the study investigates into the impact of global warming, precipitations and carbon concentration in the air on the particular aspect of rice production in Bangladesh agriculture. The simulation result exhibits a non-trend or a natural cyclical variability that is influenced by a stochastic process in the case of climate change behavior with wild observations (outliers) that produce a contradictory outcome of profound uncertainties against the case of true world temperature systematic data trend. The results of regression analysis show that climate change has a profound impact on rice productivity in Bangladesh agriculture. Overall results of the study indicate that climate change has profound effects on agricultural food production of Bangladesh agriculture